The results of this year’s local elections require little explanation, yet highlight the persistence of a longstanding issue for the Conservatives; an inability to stem the flow of voters shifting rightward to Reform UK. In an interview with the BBC, Tory leader Kemi Badenoch stated that the party ‘had a bad night’ last Thursday, brushing aside criticism of her hollow presence at the helm of Britain’s oldest political party. Those within her own ranks, however, do not share her appetite for defeat.

Within six months of party leadership, Badenoch has failed to adequately prepare for PMQs, maintain a media presence or fulfill fundamental duties as Leader of the Opposition – instead, she has succumbed to the vociferous Nigel Farage, to whom flooding the zone is as instinctive as phoning in to his own broadcast. Whilst her assertion that fixing the Tories demands a ‘slow and steady’ strategy may carry some weight, it remains unclear whether Badenoch is capable of delivering a grand project of renewal. The party is in disarray – unashamed calls for a seventh leader in nine years flood the headlines, dragging the party toward deeper humiliation and compounding the challenges awaiting any successor. 

Alas, it’s easy to forget that for today’s Conservative leaders, inheriting a party in public distrust is the rule – not the exception. Few will be surprised to learn that talks of replacing Badenoch with Robert Jenrick are well underway – a nominee whose policies are tilted more toward Reform than traditional Conservatism. In December 2023, Jenrick resigned from his role as Minister of State for Immigration over disagreements with the already contentious Rwanda asylum plan, insisting the policy was weak. For some Tories, his tough stance marked a glimmer of hope in an attempt to win back Reform voters – a sentiment reflected in his narrow defeat to Badenoch in the Conservative party leadership contest last year. 

Speaking of previous candidates, former Foreign Secretary and one-time leadership frontrunner James Cleverly has not been ruled out – his ejection from the contest in October widely attributed to a momentous tactical voting misfire. Whilst encouraging the party to ‘be more normal’ is hardly a groundbreaking policy, a shift toward the centre may be the only viable strategy to dispel public notions of a Tory-Reform coalition and regain support from the middle.

As debate over Badenoch’s leadership dominates discussions within Conservative circles, it would be hasty to assume the outcome of a race that may never occur. History shows that continued speculation over party leadership risks widening internal divisions, creating fresh vulnerabilities for opponents like Farage to exploit. Ultimately, decisions concerning party leadership hinge on whether a vote of no confidence is triggered by one-third of Conservative MPs. Letters must be submitted to Bob Blackman, chairman of the 1922 Committee, who doubled the threshold to force a vote of no confidence prior to Badenoch’s election as party leader last November.

Perhaps the threshold is the prompt needed to remind the party that leaders should not be treated as indispensable during their first year, but improvable. As it stands, there’s still time for Badenoch, though whether her colleagues have the patience is another matter entirely.